Esikhathini esithile esidlule, u-Yellen wavakashela e-China, kuthiwa wenza "imisebenzi" eminingi, abezindaba bangaphandle ukuze bamsize afingqe omunye wayo: "ukuqinisekisa izikhulu zaseShayina ukuthi i-United States egameni lezokuphepha kazwelonke ukuvimbela i-China ekutholeni ubuchwepheshe obubucayi obufana nama-semiconductors kanye nochungechunge lwezinyathelo azihloselwe ukulimaza umnotho waseShayina."
Sekuyiminyaka engu-2023, i-United States yethula ukuvinjelwa kwemboni ye-chip yaseShayina akukaze kube ngaphansi kwemizuliswano eyishumi nambili, uhlu lwezinkampani zamabhizinisi asezweni kanye nabantu abangaphezu kuka-2,000, okuphambene nakho kungakha isizathu esihle kangaka, esithinta inhliziyo, kumane nje "nguye ngempela, ngikhalela ukufa."
Mhlawumbe abaseMelika ngokwabo abakwazanga ukukubekezelela ukukubona, okwathintwa ngokushesha esinye isihloko kuyiNew York Times.
Ezinsukwini ezine ngemva kokuba u-Yellen ehambile eChina, u-Alex Palmer, intatheli yase-China eyaziwayo kumbuthano wezindaba zangaphandle, ushicilele Isihloko se-NYT esichaza ukuvinjelwa kwe-chip yase-US, eyabhalwa ngokuqondile esihlokweni esithi: Lona Umthetho Wempi.
U-Alex Palmer, othweswe iziqu e-Harvard futhi oyisazi sokuqala saseYanjing e-Peking University, usenesikhathi eside ehlanganisa i-China, okuhlanganisa no-Xu Xiang, fentanyl kanye ne-TikTok, futhi ungumuntu amaziyo omdala owalimaza imizwa yabantu baseShayina. Kodwa wenza abantu baseMelika bamtshele iqiniso mayelana ne-chip.
Kulesi sihloko, omunye ummangalelwa washo ngokungananazi ukuthi "ngeke nje sivumele iChina ukuthi yenze noma iyiphi inqubekelaphambili kwezobuchwepheshe, sizohlehlisa ngenkuthalo izinga layo lamanje lobuchwepheshe" nokuthi ukuvinjelwa kwama-chip "empeleni kumayelana nokuqeda yonke i-ecosystem yobuchwepheshe baseChina."
Abantu baseMelika bathatha igama elithi “qeda,” elinencazelo efanayo yokuthi “qothula” kanye “nokusishulwa,” futhi ngokuvamile libhekiselwa phambi kwegciwane lengxibongo noma izinhlangano zezidakamizwa zaseMexico. Manje, inhloso yegama imboni yaseChina yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu. Uma lezi zinyathelo ziphumelela, zingathinta inqubekelaphambili yaseChina esizukulwaneni, ababhali babikezela.
Noma ubani ofuna ukuqonda izinga lempi uzodinga kuphela ukuhlafuna igama elithi qeda ngokuphindaphindiwe.
01
Impi ekhulayo
Umthetho wokuncintisana kanye nomthetho wempi empeleni yizinto ezimbili ezihluke ngokuphelele.
Ukuncintisana kwebhizinisi kuwumncintiswano ngaphakathi kohlaka lwezomthetho, kodwa impi ayifani, umphikisi cishe akanandaba nanoma yimiphi imithetho nemingcele, uzokwenza noma yini ukufeza izinhloso zabo zamasu. Ikakhulukazi emkhakheni wama-chips, i-United States ingakwazi ngisho nokushintsha imithetho - uzivumelanisa nesethi eyodwa, yashintsha ngokushesha isethi entsha yokubhekana nawe.
Isibonelo, ngo-2018, uMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US wagunyaza i-Fujian Jinhua “ngohlu lwebhizinisi”, oluholele ngokuqondile ekumisweni kokukhiqizwa kwakamuva (manje osekuqale kabusha umsebenzi); Ngo-2019, i-Huawei iphinde yafakwa ohlwini lwebhizinisi, ikhawulela izinkampani zaseMelika ekunikezeni imikhiqizo namasevisi kuyo, njengesofthiwe ye-EDA kanye ne-GMS ye-Google.
Ngemuva kokuthola ukuthi lezi zindlela azikwazi "ukuyiqeda" ngokuphelele iHuawei, i-United States yashintsha imithetho: kusukela ngoMeyi 2020, yaqala ukufuna zonke izinkampani ezisebenzisa ubuchwepheshe baseMelika ukuthi zinikeze iHuawei, njengesisekelo se-TSMC, okuholele ngqo ekumeni kwe-Hisiculus kanye nokufinyezwa okubukhali kwezingcingo eziphathwayo zikaHuawei, okuletha ukulahlekelwa okungaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-100 njalo ngonyaka wama-yuan wezimboni waseChina.
Ngemuva kwalokho, abaphathi be-Biden bakhulise okuhlosiwe kwezicishamlilo kusuka “ebhizinisini” kuya “kwezimboni”, futhi inani elikhulu lamabhizinisi aseShayina, amanyuvesi kanye nezikhungo zocwaningo lwesayensi zafakwa ngokulandelana ohlwini lokuvinjelwa. Ngomhla ka-7 Okthoba 2022, Ihhovisi Lemboni Nezokuphepha Lomnyango Wezohwebo wase-US (BIS) likhiphe imithetho emisha yokulawula ukuthekelisa ecishe yabeka ngokuqondile “uphahla” kuma-semiconductors ase-China:
Ama-chips anengqondo angaphansi kwe-16nm noma i-14nm, isitoreji se-NAND esinezendlalelo ezingu-128 noma ngaphezulu, amasekhethi ahlanganisiwe e-DRAM ane-18nm noma ngaphansi, njll. akhawulelwe ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle, futhi ama-chips ekhompuyutha anamandla ekhompuyutha angaphezu kuka-4800TOPS kanye nomkhawulokudonsa oxhumanisayo ongaphezu kuka-600GB/s nawo akhawulelwe ukuthengiswa okuqondile noma okutholiwe.
Ngamazwi ethangi lokucabanga laseWashington: UTrump uqondise amabhizinisi, kanti iBiden ishaya izimboni.
Lapho ufunda inoveli Yezinkinga Ezinemizimba Emithathu, kulula kubafundi abavamile ukuqonda i-Yang mo yaseZhizi ukukhiya ubuchwepheshe boMhlaba; Kodwa empeleni, lapho abantu abaningi abangewona abezimboni bebheka ukuvinjelwa kwe-chip, bavame ukuba nombono: inqobo nje uma uthobela imithetho yase-United States, ngeke uqondiswe; Uma uqondiswe, kusho ukuthi wenze okuthile okungalungile.
Lo mbono uvamile, ngoba abantu abaningi basahlala esimweni sengqondo "sokuncintisana". Kodwa “empini,” lo mbono ungase ube inkohliso. Eminyakeni yamuva, abaphathi abaningi be-semiconductor baye babonisa ukuthi lapho ucwaningo oluzimele nentuthuko yebhizinisi iqala ukuhileleka emikhakheni ethuthukisiwe (ngisho nokucwaninga kwangaphambilini), izohlangana nodonga lwegesi olungabonakali.
Ucwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kwama-chips asezingeni eliphezulu kusekelwe kusethi yochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kobuchwepheshe bomhlaba wonke, njengokwenza ama-chips angu-5nm SoC, udinga ukuthenga ama-cores kwa-Arm, uthenge isofthiwe kwa-Candence noma i-Synopsys, uthenge amagunya obunikazi kwa-Qualcomm, futhi uhlanganise umthamo wokukhiqiza ne-TSMC... Inqobo nje uma lezi zenzo zenziwe, bazongena emkhakheni wombono woMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US.
Icala elilodwa inkampani ye-chip yomkhiqizi wamaselula, eyavula inkampani yocwaningo nentuthuko e-Taiwan ukuze ihehe amathalente endawo ukwenza ama-chips ebanga labathengi, kodwa ngokushesha yahlangabezana "nophenyo" lweminyango efanelekile yase-Taiwan. Ngokuphelelwa yithemba, inkampani engaphansi kwayo yaphonswa kumama njengomphakeli ozimele ngaphandle komzimba, kodwa bekufanele iqaphele.
Ekugcineni, inkampani ephethwe yi-Taiwanese yaphoqeleka ukuthi ivalwe ngemva kokuhlasela “kwabashushisi” baseTaiwan abagasele bathatha amaseva abo (akukho ukwephulwa okutholakele). Futhi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kamuva, inkampani engumzali nayo yavele yathatha isinyathelo sokuyihlakaza - abaphathi abaphezulu bathola ukuthi ngaphansi kokuvinjelwa okushintshayo, inqobo nje uma kuyiphrojekthi ye-chip ephezulu, kunengozi "yokuchofoza okukodwa."
Impela, lapho ibhizinisi elingalindelekile lihlangana nomnikazi wamasheya omkhulu othanda umsele wobuchwepheshe be-Maoxiang, umphumela ulahlekile.
Leli khono “lokuchofoza okukodwa ziro” empeleni lithi i-United States isiguqule “isigaba sezimboni somhlaba wonke esisekelwe ekuhwebeni okukhululekile” ebesilandelwa phambilini laba yisikhali sokuhlasela isitha. Izazi zaseMelika ziqhamuke negama elithi ukuncika kwezikhali ukuze kuqede lokhu kuziphatha.
Ngemva kokubona lezi zinto ngokucacile, izinto eziningi ebeziyimpikiswano phambilini akudingekile ukuba zixoxwe. Isibonelo, asikho isidingo sokulahla uHuawei ngokuphula ukuvinjelwa kwe-Iran, ngoba kuye kwashiwo ngokucacile ukuthi "i-Iran iyizaba nje"; Kuwumsangano ukusola iChina ngenqubomgomo yayo yezimboni, njengoba i-United States isebenzisa amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-53 ukuxhasa ukukhiqizwa kwama-chip nokukhuthaza ukubuyiswa komhlaba.
UClausewitz wake wathi, "Impi iwukuqhubeka kwezepolitiki." Ngokufanayo nezimpi zama-chip.
02
I-blockade ibuyela emuva
Abanye abantu bazobuza: i-United States ngakho "izwe lonke ukulwa", ayikho indlela yokubhekana nayo?
Uma ufuna lolo hlobo lweqhinga lomlingo lokuphula isitha, akunjalo. Isayensi yekhompiyutha ngokwayo yazalelwa e-United States, ikakhulukazi imboni yesifunda edidiyelwe, ngakolunye uhlangothi ukusebenzisa izindlela zempi ukudlala ilungelo lokukhuluma ngeketanga lezimboni, i-China ingathatha isikhathi eside ukuze inqobe kusukela phezulu naphansi komfula kancane kancane, okuyinto inqubo ende.
Kodwa-ke, akulona iqiniso ukusho ukuthi lesi "senzo sempi" asinazo imiphumela emibi futhi singasetshenziswa isikhathi eside. Umphumela omkhulu ongaseceleni wokuvinjelwa komkhakha wonke wase-US yilokhu: kunikeza i-China ithuba lokuthembela ezindleleni zemakethe, kunokuba namandla amakhulu okuhlela, ukuxazulula inkinga.
Lo musho ungase ubonakale unzima ukuwuqonda ekuqaleni. Singaqala ukuqonda ukuthi yimaphi amandla okuhlela okuhlanzekile, isibonelo, embonini ye-semiconductor, kukhona iphrojekthi ekhethekile yokusekela ucwaningo olukhulu lwezobuchwepheshe, olubizwa ngokuthi "ubuchwepheshe obukhulu kakhulu bokukhiqiza isifunda esihlanganisiwe kanye nenqubo ephelele", imboni ngokuvamile ibizwa ngokuthi i-02 ekhethekile, izimali zezimali ezihlanzekile.
Izinkampani ezikhethekile ze-02 zithathile, lapho umlobi e-investimenti ye-semiconductor, lapho inkampani yocwaningo ibona okuningi "okukhethekile kwe-02" kushiye i-prototype, ngemva kokubona umuzwa wokuxutshwa, ukuthi ungasho kanjani? Imishini eminingi enqwabelene endaweni yokugcina impahla iyisandla esimpunga, mhlawumbe kuphela lapho abaholi bokuhlola bezokhishwa ukuze bayopholisha.
Yiqiniso, iphrojekthi ekhethekile ye-02 yanikeza izimali ezibalulekile zamabhizinisi ebusika ngaleso sikhathi, kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukusebenza kahle kokusetshenziswa kwalezi zimali akuphakeme. Ngokuthembela osizweni lwezezimali kuphela (ngisho noma uxhaso lungamabhizinisi), ngesaba ukuthi kunzima ukwenza ubuchwepheshe nemikhiqizo engafakwa emakethe. Noma ubani oke wenza ucwaningo uyakwazi lokhu.
Ngaphambi kwezimpi ze-chip, i-China yayinemishini eminingi edonsa kanzima, izinto zokwakha kanye nezinkampani zama-chip ezincane ezazizabalaza ukuncintisana nabalingani bazo bakwamanye amazwe, futhi izinkampani ezifana ne-SMIC, JCET ngisho neHuawei ngokuvamile azizange zibanake kakhulu, futhi kulula ukuqonda ukuthi kungani: babengeke basebenzise imikhiqizo yasekhaya lapho bekwazi ukuthenga imikhiqizo yangaphandle evuthiwe futhi engabizi kakhulu.
Kodwa ukuvinjwa kwe-United States kwemboni yama-chip yaseChina kulethe ithuba elingandile kulezi zinkampani.
Endabeni yokuvinjwa, abakhiqizi basekhaya ababenganakwa ngaphambili ngezindwangu noma izitshalo zokuhlola ezivaliwe baphuthunyiswa emashalofini, futhi inani elikhulu lemishini nezinto zokwakha zathunyelwa emgqeni wokukhiqiza ukuze kuqinisekiswe. Nesomiso eside nemvula yamafektri amancane afuywayo kwavele kwabona ithemba, akekho owaba nesibindi sokumosha leli thuba eliyigugu, ngakho-ke basebenza ngokungakhathali ukuthuthukisa imikhiqizo.
Nakuba lokhu kuwumjikelezo wangaphakathi wokumaketha, ukuphuma ngenkani kwezentengiso, kodwa ukusebenza kahle kwawo nakho kusebenza kahle kakhulu kunamandla okuhlela ahlanzekile: ingxenye eyodwa yenhliziyo yensimbi eya esikhundleni sasekhaya, iqembu elilodwa libamba utshani, futhi ebhodini lesayensi nobuchwepheshe umphumela ocebile ogqugquzelwe yi-semiconductor ekhuphuka nomfula cishe yonke ingxenye eqondile kunezinkampani eziningi kuvolumu.
Sibale inkambiso yenzuzo yezinkampani zaseShayina ezisohlwini lwe-semiconductor eminyakeni eyishumi edlule (kuphela izinkampani ezineminyaka eyishumi yokusebenza okuqhubekayo ezikhethiwe), futhi sizobona umkhuba ocacile wokukhula: eminyakeni engu-10 edlule, inzuzo ephelele yalezi zinkampani zasekhaya yayingaphezu kwezigidigidi ezi-3 kuphela, futhi ngo-2022, inzuzo yazo yonke idlule i-33.4 billion, cishe izikhathi ezingu-10 edlule.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Oct-30-2023
